The Miami Dolphins limped into the playoffs with a late 11-6 victory over the New York Jets, ending a five-game losing streak. Their reward is to go to number 2 seed and divisional rivals Buffalo on Sunday.
Buffalo ended the season on a seven-game winning streak which included beating AFC East rivals Miami 32-29 at Highmark Stadium in week 15.
The Dolphins will be praying on the fitness of Tua Tagovailoa, who missed the regular season finale with another concussion. Rookie Skyler Thompson only narrowly overcame a New York Jets side who were already eliminted from playoff contention, and that victory was largely down to defence.
Miami haven’t had a great defence for much of the season – the Bills averaged 25.5 points against them across two games, Baltimore put up 38 in week 2, New York Jets 40 in week 5, the Chicago Bears 32 in week 9 and New England 23 in week 17.
The Bills are excellent on both sides of the ball and even returned two kickoffs for touchdowns in their 35-23 win over the New England Patriots in their regular season finale. They have scored 28+ points in six of their last eight and allowed <14 in three of their last five.
If Tua is fit then Miami have a long shot. if he’s not then they have no chance. Defensively I cannot see them holding Josh Allen to <21 points as they did in week 3. Although he’s been turning over the ball too often of late, the Dolphins don’t have the best of defensive to create too many opportunities.
What is the Dolphins @ Bills money line?
The Buffalo Bills are -10.5 point favourites, which they have not covered in either game versus their AFC East rivals this season, with the series split at 1-1. This will change should Tua Tagovailoa be confirmed as starting Quarterback. The Bills are currently as short as 1/6 to win on the money line.
Dolphins @ Bills pick
Whether Tua is fit or not we are expecting the number 2 seed to progress here. They are better on both sides of the ball, albeit both Tyreek Hill and Jaylon Hill are capable of breaking a big play or two on them. But over the course of 60 minutesthe Bills come out on top.
Pick: Buffalo Bills
