A rematch of week 17 when the Cincinnati Bengals were able to come-from-behind and pull off a surprise, late victory at the Kansas City Chiefs.
That result knocked Andy Reid’s side out of the Number 1 seed, but the way the playoffs have worked out, courtesy of the Bengals’ win over the Tennessee Titans last week, they ended up hosting the AFC Championship once again.
The game between these two four weeks ago saw both quarterbacks attempt 35 or more passes, just like the Chiefs’ thrilling Divisional round victory over the Buffalo Bills this past weekend. We expect to see a similar shootout at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday.
As we’re tipping the Chiefs to win this and they are 7-point favourites with the sportsbooks, the visiting team are likely to be playing catchup in the second half. That means the ball goes in Joe Burrow’s hands.
What’s more, Joe Mixon hasn’t had many big runs in the post-season and the Chiefs held Devon Singletary to just 26 yards on 10 carries last Sunday. So expect the second-year NFL quarterback to have the ball in his hands a lot this weekend.
Whilst the sportsbooks have set the under/over on pass completions at 37.5, we find much better value in completions where the line is at 24.5. Burrow completed 28 passes versus the Titans last weekend and 30 in their victory over the Chiefs previously. We expect he’ll complete a similar number this weekend too.
Pick: Joe Burrow over 24.5 completed passes